KEY POINTS
• Global rare earths market could reach $10.4bn by 2030.
• Heavy rare earths remain particularly difficult for Western markets to source.
• US projects are expanding to build alternative supply chains.
The global rare earths market is expanding rapidly, but the biggest challenge facing Western economies is increasingly centred on heavy rare earths and yttrium rather than overall mineral volumes.
Research cited by Mining Weekly shows the global rare earths market could grow from about $6.86 billion in 2026 to $10.44 billion by 2030, representing an annual growth rate of 11.1%.
North America is expected to be the fastest-growing regional market as the US and its allies work to establish more secure and integrated rare earths supply chains.
The supply challenge is particularly significant for heavy rare earth elements, which are important in advanced manufacturing and other strategic applications but have limited production outside China.
The supply situation has become more complicated following China’s decision in April 2025 to place seven medium and heavy rare earth elements under export licensing controls.
The elements affected include samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, scandium, lutetium and yttrium.
The restrictions have increased pressure on Western countries to develop alternative sources of supply, particularly for elements that are difficult to replace and essential to high-value industrial applications.
The market is already showing a significant price difference between China and North America.
According to figures cited from S&P Global, September transactions in North America put dysprosium oxide at about $3,250/kg and terbium oxide at $7,500/kg.
Chinese reference prices were substantially lower at about $212/kg for dysprosium oxide and $218/kg for terbium oxide.
The wide price gap provides a strong commercial incentive for producers to develop new capacity outside China, although bringing new rare earth projects into production remains technically and financially challenging.
Persistence Market Research has also forecast strong growth for the sector, estimating the global rare earths market at about $7.8 billion in 2026 and projecting it could reach $15.4 billion by 2033. That represents an annual growth rate of about 10.2%.
North America is again expected to record the strongest regional growth, with the market projected to expand at an annual rate of 13.6%.
The growth reflects increasing efforts by the US to establish domestic supply chains covering mining, processing, metal production and magnet manufacturing.
The objective is to reduce exposure to disruptions in overseas supply and develop a more integrated critical-minerals industry. Several projects are now being advanced in the US to address the supply gap.
Tactical Resources Corporation is developing the Peak project in Texas, although the project remains at an early stage.
USA Rare Earth is advancing the Round Top heavy rare earth project, also in Texas. The company has also begun construction of a rare earth metals and magnet manufacturing facility in South Carolina.
The projects form part of a wider effort to connect mineral production with downstream processing and manufacturing capacity inside the US.
MP Materials expands production
MP Materials, which operates the Mountain Pass rare earths mine in California and a magnet manufacturing facility in Texas, is also expanding its position in the supply chain.
The company reported production of 840 tonnes of neodymium and praseodymium in the second quarter, representing a 41% increase compared with the same period a year earlier.
The company is one of the more advanced US-based rare earths producers and is developing downstream capabilities to move further into magnet manufacturing. Other companies are also increasing their focus on heavy rare earth processing.
Energy Fuels has started expanding its White Mesa Mill in Utah to support large-scale production of heavy rare earth oxides.
NioCorp Developments has also released an updated feasibility study for its Elk Creek project, which has the potential to produce scandium trioxide, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide. The expansion of mining projects is only one part of the challenge facing Western economies.
Rare earth supply chains require a series of processing and manufacturing stages, meaning increased mine production does not automatically translate into secure supplies of finished materials.
The development of refining, separation, metal production and magnet manufacturing capacity will therefore remain critical to efforts to build alternatives to China’s established supply chain.
Heavy rare earths are particularly important because production is concentrated in a relatively small number of locations and the technical requirements for processing them can be complex.
The growing price premium for materials such as dysprosium and terbium is creating an economic incentive for new Western projects, but companies still need to overcome financing, technology, permitting and infrastructure challenges.
As demand for rare earths rises through 2030 and beyond, the ability of Western producers to move projects from exploration and development into commercial production will become increasingly important to the security of critical-mineral supply chains.
