Key points
- The refined copper surplus is forecast to widen from about 104,000 tons in 2026 to 368,000 tons in 2027.
- Refined output is expected to rise 0.4% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.
- Usage is forecast to grow 1.5% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, led by Asia.
The International Copper Study Group forecast on Wednesday that the global refined copper market will remain in surplus through 2027, with the gap widening from about 104,000 metric tons in 2026 to 368,000 metric tons in 2027.
World refined copper production is forecast to rise by about 0.4% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. The group said next year’s increase would be driven by the ramp-up of smelters and refineries in Indonesia, India, and the European Union.
Apparent refined copper usage is expected to grow by about 1.5% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027.
According to the group, demand will keep drawing support from improved manufacturing activity in some key end-use sectors, the energy transition, urbanization and digitalization, including data centers and artificial intelligence.
New semiconductor production capacity in several countries will also help. Asia will remain the main driver of global growth.
On the supply side, world copper mine production is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027. The group credited the ramp-up of new and expanded mines and improved output in producing countries.
Consequently, refined supply is set to grow faster than usage in 2027, which explains the wider surplus.
