KEY POINTS
- Copper reached a record $14 779 a tonne.
- US tariffs are driving copper into Comex warehouses.
- Investors are awaiting US inflation data and tariff clarity.
Copper prices are approaching the $15 000-a-tonne mark as investors assess fresh US economic data and await greater clarity on potential import tariffs.
Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange climbed for a fourth consecutive session to a record $14 779 a tonne on September 8, extending a rally that analysts said could push prices above $15 000 in the near term.
Panmure Liberum analyst Tom Price said copper could reach the psychological threshold this week, although he cautioned that the market was being driven partly by speculative investment.
The US tariff outlook remains a major factor behind the price surge. Washington has proposed a 15% tariff on refined copper imports from the beginning of 2027, rising to 30% in 2028, but the policy has not yet been confirmed or ruled out.
US stocks reshape global copper flows
Uncertainty over the proposed tariffs has encouraged large volumes of copper to move into US warehouses, particularly those approved by the Comex exchange.
The shift has reduced copper inventories held on the London Metal Exchange and in China, the world’s largest metals consumer.
LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange copper stocks stood at just over 300 000 tonnes combined, less than half the record 695 624 tonnes held in Comex warehouses.
An open arbitrage opportunity between markets has encouraged traders to move additional copper into the US, tightening available inventories elsewhere and adding support to prices.
SP Angel analyst John Meyer said there was still ample physical copper globally, but much of it was now concentrated in the US.
US economic data could drive next move
Analysts are also watching several US economic indicators that could determine whether copper’s rally continues.
Marex senior base metals strategist Alastair Munro pointed to details of an expected US Treasury bond buyback and August consumer price index data due later in the week.
The inflation data could be particularly important because it may influence expectations for the US dollar and interest rates.
Sucden Financial warned that copper could face profit-taking if the dollar strengthens following the CPI release. A stronger dollar typically makes commodities priced in the currency more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
However, Sucden said copper could continue gaining if it remains above $14 400 a tonne.
Morgan Stanley has forecast a fourth-quarter copper price of $14 250 a tonne, but the bank’s metals and mining commodity strategy head, Amy Gower, said that level could be exceeded depending on the timing and outcome of the US tariff decision.
The bank remains positive on copper for the rest of 2026 but expects a more cautious market in 2027.
Gower said US import demand could weaken next year if tariffs are introduced or if the uncertainty surrounding the policy is resolved.
Until there is greater clarity on tariffs, SP Angel’s Meyer said copper could remain supported by the unusual movement of physical metal into the US market.
The combination of record US inventories, lower stocks in other major markets and continued uncertainty over trade policy is therefore keeping copper prices elevated as investors await the next major market signals.
