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KEY POINTS
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Rio Tinto is targeting $5 billion in released capital by the end of 2026 after freeing up more than $2 billion so far.
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Pilbara iron ore sales rose 2 per cent year on year to 85.7 million tons in the third quarter.
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Lithium output is expected at the lower end of guidance, while Simandou needs 3.3 million tons in fourth-quarter sales to reach the lower end of its annual target.
Rio Tinto is on track to release about $5 billion in capital by the end of 2026 after stronger-than-expected iron ore sales from its Pilbara operations in Australia boosted its third-quarter performance.
The mining giant sold 85.7 million metric tons of iron ore from Pilbara in the three months ended September 30, representing a 2 per cent increase from the same period in 2025. The figure also exceeded the market consensus estimate of 84.41 million tons.
The performance strengthens Rio Tinto’s efforts to improve capital efficiency and direct more funding towards growth projects expected to generate higher returns.
Rio Tinto advances $5 billion capital target
Rio Tinto said it had already released more than $2 billion in capital during 2026 under an optimisation programme designed to free up between $5 billion and $10 billion.
The programme was unveiled at the company’s 2025 Capital Markets Day and aims to improve the use of existing resources while supporting investment in more profitable growth opportunities.
Releasing capital through operational improvements and more disciplined spending can give mining companies greater flexibility to fund new projects, manage costs and strengthen shareholder returns.
Rio Tinto’s latest update indicates that it remains on course to achieve the initial $5 billion target by the end of this year.
However, its shares fluctuated during early trading on Wednesday. The stock initially rose by as much as 0.9 per cent before reversing direction to trade 0.2 per cent lower at A$160.67 at 00:17 GMT.
Pilbara iron ore shipments remain on target
Despite the stronger third-quarter sales, Rio Tinto maintained its 2026 Pilbara iron ore sales guidance of between 323 million and 338 million tons.
The company has shipped 243.4 million tons so far this year. To reach the lower end of its annual target, it will need to ship another 79.6 million tons in the fourth quarter.
The final three months of the year are typically Rio Tinto’s strongest period for iron ore shipments, supporting its ability to meet the forecast.
Iron ore remains central to the company’s operations and earnings because it is a key raw material used in steel production. Demand from major steelmaking markets, particularly China, remains an important influence on the commodity’s prices and the performance of large producers.
Copper production remains broadly flat
Rio Tinto’s copper output was largely unchanged during the third quarter at 205,000 tons.
A 27 per cent increase in production at Mongolia’s Oyu Tolgoi mine helped offset lower output at Chile’s Escondida mine and weaker refined copper production at Kennecott in the United States.
The contrasting performances across its copper assets show how production changes at individual mines can affect the group’s overall output.
Copper is an important part of Rio Tinto’s diversified mining portfolio, with demand supported by applications in electricity networks, renewable energy systems, electric vehicles and other industrial uses.
Lithium outlook affected by project delays
Rio Tinto expects its full-year lithium production to come in at the lower end of its forecast range of 61,000 to 64,000 tons.
The company attributed the outlook to a slower-than-expected ramp-up at its Sal de Vida lithium project in Argentina.
The adjustment suggests that the project is taking longer than anticipated to reach the production levels needed to support the company’s annual target.
Lithium is a key material used in rechargeable batteries, including those powering electric vehicles and energy storage systems. Rio Tinto’s production outlook will therefore be important to investors tracking its expansion in battery materials alongside its established iron ore and copper businesses.
Simandou project faces fourth-quarter sales target
Rio Tinto also reported that its Simandou iron ore project in Guinea sold 1.7 million wet metric tons during the first nine months of 2026.
To reach the lower end of its full-year sales forecast of five million to 10 million tons, the project will need to sell approximately 3.3 million tons in the fourth quarter.
The required sales volume will make the final three months of the year important for the project’s progress towards its initial annual target.
Simandou is a major iron ore development in Guinea and forms part of Rio Tinto’s broader efforts to expand its supply base. Its performance will be watched as the company balances production growth, capital discipline and investment across its global portfolio.
