Key points
- Gold trades well below its broken $4,250 an ounce support while Brent holds above $100 a barrel.
- Platinum is below $1,700, palladium is the weakest metal near $1,135, and silver tests $60.
- Zimbabwe’s Darwendale and Karo projects could add about 140,000 ounces of platinum a year.
Gold has stayed under pressure as tensions in the Middle East keep oil prices high, according to Heraeus Precious Metals’ latest Precious Appraisal.
The price remains well below its recently broken $4,250 an ounce support, while the dollar has strengthened and Brent crude has held comfortably above $100 a barrel.
Oil flows recover, but refined products lag
Heraeus says there is no resolution in sight to the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, though Middle Eastern supply has proved more resilient than feared.
JPMorgan estimated in late September that crude exports had recovered to 98% of pre-war levels, and Shell executives said regional flows were above 80%.
However, diesel and gasoline flows sit at only 58% of pre-war levels because of damaged and shuttered refineries.
Silver is also weak. It has tested support just below $60 an ounce and remains beneath its 50-day moving average near $64. A sustained break would put the July lows just below $55 in view. Moreover, silver is more exposed than gold to the growth effects of costly energy.
Platinum group metals: slow supply, weak prices
Platinum stayed below $1,700 an ounce after failing to hold a September rally toward $1,900. Support sits near the year-to-date low of about $1,520.
Palladium is the weakest of the group, having broken below and then tentatively regained about $1,135 amid a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Meanwhile, iridium and ruthenium rose slightly and rhodium was flat.
On supply, Wesizwe Platinum restarted underground development at its Bakubung mine on Sept. 23 after restructuring, targeting a single-stage ramp-up to 3.5 million metric tons a year. However, the concentrator, which has had repeated commissioning problems since 2024, is on care and maintenance.
Heraeus calls the restart progress rather than an immediate addition to supply. At full production, Bakubung could yield about 130,000 ounces of platinum a year, roughly 3.5% of South Africa’s output.
In Zimbabwe, state-owned Mutapa Platinum closed a $100 million debt facility for Darwendale, which holds an estimated 44 million ounces of PGM resources and targets first production by late 2027.
Tharisa’s Karo project, costing about $545 million, secured a $300 million bond, with first ore expected in the fourth quarter of 2027. Combined, the two could add about 140,000 ounces of platinum a year, about 28% of current Zimbabwean supply.
