KEY POINTS
- Glencore expects 2026 marketing profit to exceed $5 billion.
- Energy and freight market volatility has boosted trading earnings.
- New long-term guidance targets about $3.5 billion annually from 2027.
Glencore has raised its outlook for 2026 marketing earnings to more than $5 billion, driven by strong trading conditions in oil, gas and freight markets.
The Swiss mining and commodities trading company said its marketing division delivered a near-record performance in the first half of the year, benefiting from volatility and disruptions across global energy markets.
Trading business gets major boost
Glencore expects its marketing adjusted operating profit for 2026 to exceed $5 billion, significantly above the company’s previous long-term guidance of between $2.3 billion and $3.5 billion a year.
The stronger outlook reflects the unusual market conditions that have created opportunities for commodity traders, particularly in energy.
Conflicts in the Middle East have disrupted supply chains and created constraints across global oil and gas markets, increasing price movements and trading opportunities.
Glencore is different from many major mining companies because it combines large-scale mining operations with a global commodity trading business. This structure allows the company to benefit when disruptions create large differences in commodity prices, supply and demand between markets.
The company’s marketing division previously achieved a record adjusted operating profit of $6.4 billion in 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine war caused major disruptions in global commodity markets.
Glencore changes long-term profit target
Alongside the stronger 2026 forecast, Glencore has introduced a new framework for assessing the long-term performance of its marketing business.
The new guidance, which will apply from 2027, targets annual marketing adjusted operating profit of about $3.5 billion.
The company expects normal long-term earnings to fall within a range of $2.8 billion to $4.2 billion a year.
The revised framework takes into account changes in Glencore’s Readily Marketable Inventories, or RMI, as well as the higher cost of financing those inventories.
Glencore said its RMI has increased significantly in recent years as commodity prices have risen, inflation has pushed up costs and the overall scale of its business has expanded.
The company also noted that interest rates are now higher, increasing the cost of financing the commodities it holds and trades.
New framework reflects bigger business
Under the assumptions used in the new guidance, Glencore will base its long-term marketing earnings outlook on RMI of $32.2 billion as of June 30 and funding costs of 5%.
The company said these changes provide a more appropriate basis for assessing the future performance of its marketing division.
The revised framework also gives investors a clearer picture of how changes in commodity prices, inventory levels and financing costs could affect the trading business over time.
Glencore’s strong 2026 outlook comes as commodity markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, supply disruptions and changing demand.
Australian trading listing set to begin
Glencore also confirmed that trading in CHESS Depositary Interests under its secondary listing on the Australian Securities Exchange is expected to begin on October 14.
The listing is expected to provide Australian investors with direct access to Glencore securities through the local market.
The company’s latest earnings outlook reinforces the importance of its marketing division to overall financial performance, particularly during periods of significant volatility in global commodity markets.
However, the company’s long-term guidance remains considerably below the exceptional earnings expected in 2026, reflecting the view that current market conditions may not be sustained indefinitely.
