KEY POINTS
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Chile’s 2026 copper output is forecast to fall 8.4% to 4.94 million tons.
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Production is expected to recover by 3% to 5.08 million tons in 2027.
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Cochilco raised its average copper price forecasts to $6.18 per pound in 2026 and $5.95 in 2027.
Chile has lowered its copper production forecasts for 2026 and 2027 as declining ore grades, maintenance work and operational disruptions continue to affect mining output.
The country’s copper commission, Cochilco, now expects production to fall more sharply this year than previously projected, followed by a weaker recovery in 2027. However, it has raised its outlook for copper prices, citing constrained mine supply and limited capacity in the refined copper market to absorb further disruptions.
2026 production forecast lowered
Cochilco expects Chile to produce 4.94 million metric tons of copper in 2026, representing an 8.4% decline from the previous year.
The revised estimate is below the commission’s August forecast of 5.27 million tons, which anticipated a smaller 2.6% decline.
Production has already weakened considerably. Chile produced 3.63 million tons between January and September 2026, down 8.5% compared with the corresponding period in 2025.
To meet its full-year target, the country would need to produce approximately 434,000 tons monthly in the fourth quarter. That would be 7.6% above the average monthly output recorded during the first nine months of the year.
Major mining companies drive the decline
Cochilco identified operations run by BHP and state-owned Codelco as major contributors to the production shortfall.
BHP’s Escondida and Spence mines, together with Codelco’s operations, account for more than 77% of Chile’s net reduction in copper production, according to the commission.
Lower ore grades, maintenance activities and operational disruptions have affected copper processing and recovery, adding pressure to output.
Chile is the world’s leading copper producer, making changes in its mining performance important to global supply and market prices.
Recovery in 2027 expected to be weaker
Cochilco expects Chilean copper production to increase by 3% to 5.08 million tons in 2027.
However, the latest projection is below its August estimate of 5.55 million tons, suggesting that the recovery could be more modest than previously anticipated.
The revised outlook indicates that production challenges may persist into next year, although the commission expects output to improve from the lower level projected for 2026.
Copper price forecasts rise
Despite lowering its production outlook, Cochilco raised its average copper price forecasts for both years.
The commission now expects copper to average $6.18 per pound in 2026 and $5.95 per pound in 2027.
It attributed the higher price outlook to constrained mine supply and a refined copper market with limited capacity to absorb production disruptions.
The combination of weaker output from Chile and restricted supply could continue to support copper prices, although actual market performance will depend on supply conditions and demand.
