KEY POINTS
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Global zinc is forecast to move from an 88,000-tonne deficit in 2026 to a 25,000-tonne surplus in 2027.
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The lead market surplus is expected to widen to 163,000 tonnes next year.
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Higher production and slower Chinese zinc demand growth are shaping the outlook.
Global zinc and lead supplies are expected to exceed demand in 2027, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, ILZSG, as production increases and consumption grows at a slower pace in some major markets.
The global refined zinc market is forecast to move from a deficit of 88,000 metric tonnes in 2026 to a surplus of 25,000 tonnes in 2027, the ILZSG said on Monday.
The change is expected as global zinc production rises and supply becomes more readily available, particularly through increased output from mines and improved access to concentrates.
Zinc demand is projected to grow by 1.2% to 14.19-million tonnes in 2027, supported by stronger consumption in Europe, India and the United States.
China’s property sector weighs on zinc demand
China’s zinc demand growth is expected to slow to 0.3% in 2027, compared with an estimated 1.8% in 2026. The slowdown is linked to reduced investment in the country’s real estate sector, which is an important source of demand for zinc used in construction and galvanised steel.
However, rising exports of manufactured goods are expected to support industrial activity and provide some relief to zinc consumption.
Global zinc production expected to rise
The ILZSG forecasts that global refined zinc production will increase by 2% to 14.21-million tonnes in 2027.
Zinc mine production is also expected to rise by 3% to 12.78-million tonnes as mining output expands and more raw materials become available.
Supplies of zinc concentrates, which are processed into refined metal, are expected to increase in Canada, Japan, Kazakhstan and Peru.
The projected rise in production would put the zinc market into surplus despite continued growth in demand.
Lead surplus expected to widen
The global refined lead market is also expected to have a larger surplus in 2027. The surplus is forecast to increase to 163,000 tonnes from 90,000 tonnes in 2026, as production grows faster than consumption.
Global demand for refined lead is projected to rise by 1% to 13.92-million tonnes in 2027, driven mainly by Europe, India and the United States.
Refined lead production is expected to increase by 1.5% to 14.08-million tonnes, while lead mine production is forecast to grow by 2.9% to 4.58-million tonnes.
The stronger growth in supply relative to demand is expected to widen the market surplus.
Forecasts differ from earlier estimates
The ILZSG’s latest projections differ from its April outlook for 2026.
At the time, the organisation expected the zinc market to record a deficit of 19,000 tonnes and the lead market to post a surplus of 109,000 tonnes this year.
The updated forecasts point to a different balance between supply and demand, particularly for zinc, which is now projected to move from a deficit in 2026 to a surplus in 2027.
