KEY POINTS
- Copper hits record $14,779.
- $15,000 target could come this week.
- US tariff uncertainty fuels buying.
Copper prices could rise above $15,000 per metric ton for the first time as early as this week, as investors position for fresh US economic data and await greater clarity on potential import tariffs under President Donald Trump.
Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) climbed for a fourth consecutive session on Tuesday, reaching a record $14,779 per metric ton. The latest surge has intensified expectations that the industrial metal could soon cross the psychologically important $15,000 threshold.
Analysts say the rally is being supported by strong speculative investment, continued uncertainty over US trade policy and a major shift in the location of global copper inventories.
The United States has proposed a 15% tariff on refined copper imports beginning in 2027, with the rate potentially increasing to 30% in 2028.
However, Washington has yet to confirm whether the proposed duties will ultimately be implemented, leaving traders uncertain about the future direction of the market.
The possibility of tariffs has encouraged companies and traders to move large quantities of copper into US warehouses. This has boosted inventories in warehouses approved by the US COMEX exchange, while stocks on the LME and in China have fallen sharply.
US copper inventories have now reached record levels of about 695,624 tons. By comparison, combined inventories on the LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) stand at just over 300,000 tons.
US Stockpiling Tightens Global Supply
The growing imbalance in inventories has become a major factor behind copper’s price rally.
An attractive price difference between US and international markets has encouraged traders to import more copper into the United States ahead of any potential tariffs. As a result, large volumes of the metal have been diverted from other major markets.
SP Angel analyst John Meyer said the market’s uncertainty over tariffs could continue supporting higher prices.
He noted that while there is sufficient physical copper globally, much of it is currently concentrated in the United States.
Despite the strong rally, analysts warned that copper could face profit-taking if upcoming US economic data strengthens the dollar.
Investors are closely watching details of a US Treasury bond buyback expected on Wednesday, followed by the release of August Consumer Price Index data on Friday.
A stronger US dollar could put pressure on copper and other dollar-denominated commodities because they become more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
