Key Points
- WPIC predicts platinum supply will rise in 2026 while demand falls.
- Trade tensions and ETF activity will determine if the market balances.
- Investment in platinum bars and coins is expected to increase, led by China.
Sterck spoke to Mining Weekly after the council released its Platinum Quarterly report, which updated forecasts for 2025 and provided the first outlook for 2026.
2025 Market Deficit
The council expects a third consecutive annual deficit in 2025, at about 692,000 ounces. This is lower than earlier forecasts due to slightly higher mining output and recycling. Total platinum supply should reach 7,129,000 ounces, the lowest in five years. Mine production is projected at 5,510,000 ounces.
Total demand for 2025 is forecast at 7,821,000 ounces, down 422,000 ounces from 2024. Slower growth in the glass sector accounts for most of the decline.
2026 Supply and Demand Outlook
For 2026, WPIC expects supply to rise 4 percent to 7,404,000 ounces. Recycling and a 2 percent increase in mining production will support the growth. Demand is forecast to fall 6 percent to 7,385,000 ounces, mainly due to reduced investment in bars and coins as ETFs unwind and trade tensions ease.
Sterck said the projected 20,000-ounce surplus would make the market broadly balanced. But if trade conditions or investor activity do not improve, the market could face another 300,000-ounce deficit.
Even with 2025 price gains, above-ground platinum stocks remain low. High lease rates and backwardation in the London over-the-counter market show continued tightness. ETF holdings stayed net positive despite rising prices, reinforcing constrained supply.
Sterck noted that automotive demand remains strong, industrial demand is steady, and jewellery demand grew in China, particularly in early 2025. Investment in platinum bars and coins should continue to rise, driven by China’s zero VAT environment.
The council said platinum’s constrained supply and steady demand make it attractive for investors. A balanced market in 2026 may not fully ease tight conditions, supporting price stability and continued interest in physical platinum.
About WPIC
The World Platinum Investment Council formed in 2014 to provide market intelligence and encourage investment in physical platinum. Its members include Valterra Platinum, Implats, Northam Platinum, Sedibelo Platinum, Tharisa, Bravo Mining, and Podium Minerals.
Platinum is used in automotive catalytic converters, industrial applications, and jewellery. In the past five years, mines supplied 72 to 79 percent of refined platinum, with the rest from recycling. Investment demand has varied from negative 8 percent to 21 percent, excluding vaulted holdings.
Bar and coin investment is expected to grow 47 percent in 2025, led by strong demand in China.
