Key Points
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Glencore projects a $304tr investment gap in the global energy transition.
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The company ramps up copper plans to reach 1.6m tonnes by 2035.
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Nagle states coal remains vital to global power demand for decades.
Glencore chief executive Gary Nagle delivered a blunt assessment of the world’s clean-energy roadmap during the company’s Capital Markets Day in Johannesburg. He said the global energy transition still needs another $304 trillion in investment to meet long-term goals.
Nagle noted that about $9.6 trillion has already been spent worldwide. That spending trimmed fossil fuels’ share of global energy demand by only 7 percent.
He added that the size of the overall energy market keeps growing, which means fossil fuel use in absolute terms has increased, not declined.
Slides from the presentation showed the same metals driving demand pressure across the sector. Copper, cobalt, nickel, aluminium, zinc, vanadium, and steelmaking coal remain critical to batteries, electric mobility, wind turbines, solar systems, AI infrastructure, and grid networks.
Copper Takes Center Stage
Glencore sharpened its focus on copper. The miner plans to lift base copper production back to one million tonnes next year after producing about 850,000 tonnes in 2025. Nagle walked investors through a growth pipeline of ten projects that could push annual copper output to 1.4 million tonnes and later to 1.6 million tonnes by 2035.
Most of the options are brownfield sites with lower capital costs. They include Mutanda in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Antapaccay and Coroccohuayco in Peru, and Collahuasi in Chile. Glencore expects to rank among the world’s top five copper producers by 2029 and potentially the largest by 2035.
Nagle said copper prices have been rising steadily since mid-2024. He argued that the trend supports new project approvals because copper mines can’t be switched on quickly. “The market’s adjusting to higher prices. We’re not seeing buyer resistance,” he noted during the session.
Coal Still Anchors Glencore’s Cashflow
Nagle defended the company’s decision to retain its coal assets. He said shareholders support the strategy, but he also stressed that the business case for coal remains strong.
High-quality energy coal still underpins electricity supply in many regions, and global infrastructure timelines make rapid replacement unrealistic.
Coal continues to be one of Glencore’s biggest cash generators, even in weak price cycles. The company has returned more than $25 billion to shareholders over the past five years and believes its mix of coal, transition metals and marketing operations will keep returns steady.
Nagle pointed to long delays in new nuclear and gas-power projects worldwide. He argued that these gaps guarantee ongoing coal demand while renewable expansion accelerates.
Transition Metals Drive Future Growth
Glencore’s broader view is that the massive investment required for renewables can’t materialise without metals. Nagle said every part of the transition needs copper, cobalt, nickel, aluminium, zinc and vanadium. Even steelmaking coal remains essential for the build-out of renewable infrastructure.
He reiterated that renewable uptake hasn’t cut fossil fuel use in absolute terms. “The world spent nearly $10 trillion to reduce the share of fossil fuels by seven percentage points. Now the cost to reach future goals is $300 trillion,” he noted.
The miner expects copper-equivalent output to rise 4 percent annually between 2026 and 2029. Copper alone is projected to grow 9.4 percent in the same period, driven by brownfield projects that Nagle described as efficient and immediately scalable.
Glencore aims to surpass one million tonnes of copper by 2028 and reach 1.6 million tonnes by 2035. The company believes its pipeline will place it among the world’s largest copper producers as demand spikes.
